International passenger growth slowed from 8.1% in May 2026 to 4.0% in June
South Korea’s international passenger market remains well above year-earlier levels despite armed conflict in the Middle East and rising jet fuel prices. However, the 8.1% increase in international passenger traffic was recorded in May 2026, not July, based on year-over-year comparisons.
According to an analysis by Yanolja Research based on aviation statistics from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, international passenger growth slowed from 14.3% in March 2026 and 13.1% in April to 8.1% in May and 4.0% in June. The figures suggest not a shrinking market, but a slowdown in the pace of the post-pandemic recovery.
Flight supply also lost momentum after April
The number of international flights remained above year-earlier levels in every month from March through June 2026. But growth slowed steadily, from 9.2% in April to 7.3% in May and 3.9% in June.
Because passenger and flight growth have slowed in broadly similar directions, the recent trend appears to reflect an adjustment in the pace of airline capacity expansion rather than a sharp drop in demand. Airlines are determining the scale of additional services by weighing jet fuel prices, booking rates by route and aircraft availability.
Middle East-driven jet fuel spike raises cost pressures
According to a Yanolja Research report, jet fuel prices rose about 83%, from $2.43 a gallon on February 27, 2026—shortly before armed conflict between the United States and Iran escalated—to $4.45 on March 20.
Sharp increases in jet fuel prices are reflected in international fuel surcharges after a certain time lag. That can raise the cost of air travel and influence when travelers book and which destinations they choose, particularly for long-haul trips.
Higher jet fuel prices, however, do not automatically lead to an across-the-board reduction in international capacity. Airlines often adjust capacity over several months, taking into account finalized operating plans and bookings, airport slots and traffic rights.
National and foreign airlines take different approaches to capacity
From March through June 2026, seat capacity at South Korean airlines increased 7.1% from the same period a year earlier, little changed from the 7.4% increase recorded in January and February, before the conflict. The number of flights operated by South Korean airlines also held steady at an 8.6% year-over-year increase.
Foreign airlines, by contrast, saw seat capacity growth slow from 8.8% before the conflict to 5.4% afterward. Flight growth also eased from 9.7% to 5.8%. The shift is seen as reflecting foreign carriers’ greater flexibility in adjusting aircraft deployment and routes in response to profitability and cost pressures.
Performance gaps between routes are becoming more pronounced
Short-haul routes to Japan and China remained relatively resilient despite uncertainty stemming from the Middle East. Yanolja Research found that passenger traffic on routes to Japan and China rose 17.7% and 21.9%, respectively, from the same period a year earlier between March and June 2026.
Routes to Southeast Asia and Oceania, by contrast, underperformed. On Asian routes excluding Japan and China, flight growth shifted from a 2.6% increase before the conflict to a 2.4% decline afterward. Passenger growth likewise fell from 1.7% to a 0.2% decrease.
Routes to the Americas and Europe performed relatively well. On routes to the Americas, flight and passenger numbers increased 10.1% and 12.6%, respectively, from the same period a year earlier. Passenger growth on European routes accelerated from 5.7% to 13.7%.
International market is reshaping its growth path rather than contracting across the board
Statistics so far indicate that the conflict in the Middle East has not immediately pushed South Korea’s international aviation market as a whole into decline. Differences in capacity and demand are, however, widening among South Korean and foreign carriers and across regions.
If the slowdown in foreign-carrier capacity and routes to Southeast Asia and Oceania persists, it could affect international visitors’ access to South Korea and Incheon International Airport’s competitiveness as a transfer hub. On the other hand, continued growth in short-haul markets such as Japan and China, along with routes to the Americas and Europe, could partly offset downward pressure on the overall market.
The indicators the aviation industry will be watching most closely are not simply passenger numbers, but regional seat capacity, load factors, fuel surcharges and changes in foreign-carrier flight schedules. Taken together, these measures can help determine whether the international market is undergoing a temporary adjustment or a structural reshaping of routes.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
When was the 8.1% international passenger growth recorded?
It was the year-over-year growth rate for international passenger traffic in May 2026. It should not be interpreted as a July figure.
What was international passenger growth in June 2026?
International passenger traffic increased 4.0% year over year in June 2026.
How did international flight growth change?
International flight growth slowed from 9.2% in April 2026 to 7.3% in May and 3.9% in June.
How did the Middle East conflict affect international passenger traffic?
It pushed up jet fuel prices and fuel surcharges, increasing the cost burden on travelers and contributing to capacity adjustments by airline and route. The international market as a whole, however, remained above year-earlier levels.
Which international routes performed relatively strongly?
Short-haul routes such as Japan and China, as well as routes to the Americas and Europe, remained relatively resilient.
